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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 36

New England Patriots 24 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model