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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 67

New England Patriots 14 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 16 for 4 yards (22-Co.Davis; 18-M.Slater). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model