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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 10-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to NE 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Meyers to NE 38 for 7 yards (86-C.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model