4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to MIN 6, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-80-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model