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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 1-G.Joseph 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model