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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 3-J.Berry punts 53 yards to BAL 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-85-D.Chisena.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.90 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP