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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to MIN 28, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.46 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model