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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to PHI 1 for 1 yard (21-A.Chachere).

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model