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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to PHI 27 for 1 yard (93-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.98 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP