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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to LAC 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.72 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP