4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to LAC 34, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-49-A.Singleton.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model