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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.67 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model