4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland pushed ob at MIA 29 for 15 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model