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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 17 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(:35) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to HOU 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.25 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP