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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 17 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to HOU 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.62 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP