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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 47

Houston Texans 9 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 36 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model