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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 6 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 7-K.Fairbairn 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +3.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.02 EP