Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 40

Miami Dolphins 17 – Houston Texans 6

(2:17) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to HOU 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.45 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP

KICK -0.59 EP

44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
56% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model