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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 24

Miami Dolphins 7 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model