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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 22

Houston Texans 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model