Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to HOU 38, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 25-D.King to HOU 40 for 2 yards (22-E.Campbell). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model