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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 13

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.11 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 13, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model