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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 31-Da.Williams to KC 37 for -2 yards (26-D.Savage, 51-K.Barnes) [52-R.Gary].

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model