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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 96

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 5-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to GB 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 47 for 15 yards (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 53, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model