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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to GB 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model