Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

(13:40) 5-T.Townsend punts 63 yards to GB 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-Am.Rodgers MUFFS catch, touched at GB 14, and recovers at GB 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model