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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams [49-D.Sorensen].

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.52 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model