4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model