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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to GB 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-85-M.Kemp.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model