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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Okafor), Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by KC-91-D.Nnadi at KC 19.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 19, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model