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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP