Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(9:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Sterns at DAL 40. 30-C.Sterns to DAL 39 for 1 yard (86-D.Schultz).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model