Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 71

Denver Broncos 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at DAL 20, recovered by DAL-24-K.Joseph at DAL 15. 24-K.Joseph to DAL 22 for 7 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model