Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 83

Denver Broncos 16 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(12:51) 6-S.Martin punts 2 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-N.Wright MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-50-J.Griffith at DEN 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.36 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model