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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 38

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) (No Huddle) 21-E.Elliott right guard to DEN 39 for -1 yards (31-J.Simmons, 96-S.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.96 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model