Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 24 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 12-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NO 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris pushed ob at NO 31 for 7 yards (27-R.Grant). PENALTY on ATL-27-R.Grant, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model