4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 6-B.Johnson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model