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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 12-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to NO 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -3.18 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP