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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 46

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model