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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Pittman.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model