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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to TEN 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at TEN 26 for 19 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model