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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.84 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model