4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 21 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP