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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 21 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to IND 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 43 for 16 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 49-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP