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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(11:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right end pushed ob at IND 34 for 13 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.97 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model