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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 21-N.Hines to TEN 32 for 6 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.03 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model