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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 41 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model