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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 11 at the 42
Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24
What Actually Happened
(6:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 11-K.Raymond.
The Three Options
GO
-0.21 EP
What Happened
-
31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.93 EP
- 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
KICK
-0.02 EP
- 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
Model's Pick
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
