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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 22

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at PHI 26 for -4 yards (93-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.82 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP