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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model